Georgia Senate Race: Polls Show Walker And Warnock In A Near Dead-Heat Two Weeks Before Runoff

Topline

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) has a slight edge over Republican Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff election, according to a new poll that suggests Warnock may have gained independent voters since the midterm election.

SANDY SPRINGS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 19: U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) takes a selfie with … [+] supporters at a campaign rally outside the Democratic Party North Fulton headquarters on November 19, 2022 in Sandy Springs, Georgia. Warnock faces Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a runoff election December 6. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Warnock leads Walker 51% to 47%, results that are within the poll’s 4.4 point margin of error but slightly more favorable toward Warnock compared to the midterm election results, when Warnock netted 49.4% of votes compared to Walker’s 48.5%.

The American Association of Retired Persons commissioned the poll with the political research firm Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, which interviewed 1,183 likely Georgia voters between November 11 and 17.

More independent voters favor Warnock, according to the survey, which showed 54% now support him, (the senator netted the support of about 46% of independent voters in the midterm election versus Walker’s 30%), though Walker has also seen a boost among independent voters since the election (39% in the new poll versus 30% on Election Day).

Warnock has the edge over Walker among Black voters—89% to 8%—and while more white voters have moved toward Warnock since the midterm election, Walker still leads among the demographic by wide margins: 67% versus Warnock’s 31%.

Younger voters skew towards Warnock (61% between the ages of 18 and 49 back him, compared to 37% for Walker), while Walker leads among voters over the age of 50, with 53% supporting him compared to Warnock’s 44%.

Big Number

84. That’s the percentage of voters who said they are extremely motivated to vote in the December 6 runoff election. Among Democrats surveyed, 90% said they are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 85% of Republicans.

Key Background

Walker and Warnock will face off again on December 6 after neither candidate secured the majority of votes in the November 8 midterm election to avoid a runoff election. The race is the final Senate contest that has yet to be called. So far, Democrats have secured 50 seats and Republicans have 49. The results in Georgia will determine whether Democrats will have even more of an advantage than the current Senate makeup, which is split 50-50. If Warnock wins, Democrats will not need Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote to pass legislation, and may need to rely less on sometimes unpredictable conservative Democratic senators, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia, or Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema. Democrats outperformed political forecasts that showed the Senate leaning slightly in favor of Republicans in the final weeks before Election Day, and the GOP losses have created internal finger-pointing, with many prominent Republicans blaming former President Donald Trump for endorsing candidates who were defeated in several pivotal races. Trump endorsed Walker in Georgia and re-upped his support for him when announcing his 2024 presidential candidacy last week.

Further Reading

Walker, Warnock Headed For A Runoff In Georgia Senate Race (Forbes)

Here’s What Democrats’ Senate Win Means For The Next Session Of Congress (Forbes)

Ad Dollars For Georgia Senate Runoff To Reach $125 Million (Forbes)

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